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USDA attache lowers Turkey wheat crop estimate
WASHINGTON , The US Agriculture Department's attache in Ankara released the following report, dated August 1, on the wheat outlook for Turkey.
Attache reports are not official USDA data. Turkish MY 2003 wheat crop is now estimated slightly lower than earlier predictions.
Parallel to this, import estimates have been revised upward assuming Turkey will export more flour.
TMO procured negligible quantities of grains, even though it increased procurement prices slightly for July and August.
Although Turkey's wheat harvest is completed in most major growing areas, the government has not yet announced official results or information concerning the quality of the crop.
In general, grain specialists believe that the crop is no worse than last year.
Turkey completed most of its wheat harvest in July.
According to unofficial reports, the Aegean Region had the lowest yields, in some cases less than half the normal yields in some areas.
In Central Anatolia, Kayseri and Yozgat provinces also had half their normal yields.
The reduction in the yields were due to the hot and dry weather during most of May and June in these areas.
The highest yields were recorded in Thrace and some parts of Konya and North-central Anatolia Region especially around Polatli because these areas continued to receive rains during the same period.
The highest quality wheat was harvested from Polatli District and surrounding areas.
Farmers awareness and participation to spray against Sunni bug had a positive infect on crop quality.
Parts of Cukurova suffered from rains during the harvest in June. Other growing regions received yields near normal levels.
There is a general consensus that Turkey has sufficient quantity and normal quality of wheat for its domestic needs in MY 2003 (June 2003 - May 2004). Turkey will not need to import any wheat as long as it does not export flour.
However, there are indications that wheat supplies in Europe and Central Asia may be tight which may support higher flour prices.
If Turkish flour exports increase significantly, Turkey will need to import some high quality milling wheat.
Production for MY 2003 was revised slightly downward due to hot and dry weather in June in especially East-central and parts of South-central Anatolia.
Sources indicate that Turkey will consider importing wheat duty free from the EU countries under a 200,000 MT import quota.
Due to the limited production in the EU, Turkey may look to other major suppliers including the United States.
For the first time in three year, US wheat was bought by Turkey for re-export as flour or wheat products.
Given shortage in the market there may be more opportunities for sales of US wheat to Turkey.
The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is expected to be responsible for wheat imports, but millers are hoping that they will be able to import some wheat directly.
TMO announced procurement prices for grains early in June (TU3014).
TMO subsequently announced new procurement prices for the entire year because it was unable to procure any grains.
There are small quantities of surprisingly high quality wheat, with protein levels as high as 17 percent and hectoliter weight 88 grams, with humidity as low 8 percent.
At the Polatli and Konya Commodity Exchanges milling wheat with 13 percent protein is currently being sold around TL 400,000 per kilogram.
Smaller quantities wheat with 16 percent protein is being sold around TL 425,000 per kilogram.
This is nearly equal to about USD 300 per MT (USD 1.00 is currently around TL 1,420,000).
Farmers have been selling only small quantities of wheat for their immediate cash needs and holding most crops in storage with an expectation of better prices.
TMO's procurement was mostly completed and only negligible quantities of grains were procured so far in MY 2003.
Exports and imports both in MY 2001 and MY 2002 all were revised according to the revised official trade data. However, export and import data in MY 2002 are for only 11 months (June 2002-April 2003).
MGR Archive 11.8.2003
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Russia Rapan $ 700
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EU Prices Baldo €660
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