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Canada: Pulse and special crops outlook
By Northarvest Bean Growers Association
Area seeded to pulse and special crops for 2003-04 in Canada is forecast to decrease by 7%, as a higher seeded area for mustard seed and sunflower seed is more than offset by a lower area for lentils, dry beans, chick peas, canary seed and buckwheat.
The area seeded to dry peas is forecast to be similar to 2002-03. Statistics Canada's (STC) seeding intentions survey, conducted during March 21-28 and released on April 24, provided estimates of areas seeded for most of the pulse and special crops by province but, in some cases, the area seeded has been forecast by AAFC.
The actual seeded area may differ due to changes in market outlook, expected prices, spring weather conditions, as well as producer reaction to the STC seeding intentions report. Although seeding is nearly complete, the STC seeded area estimate will not be available until June 26, 2003.
Seeding was significantly later than normal, due to cool and wet weather, in Saskatchewan and Alberta, where most of Canada's pulse and special crops are produced. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the summer. Although soil moisture reserves in western Canada are significantly better than a year ago, there are some dry areas in northern Alberta, northern Saskatchewan and in Manitoba. Yields are forecast to be slightly below trend, due to the dry areas and delayed seeding, but significantly higher than in 2002-03.
For eastern Canada, trend yields are assumed. It has been assumed that abandonment will return to normal, so that the harvested area for most crops is expected to increase from 2002-03. It has also been assumed that the average crop quality will return to normal.
For 2003-04, total pulse and special crops production is forecast to increase by 52%, compared to 2002-03, to 4.23 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to increase by only 29% because of lower carry-in stocks. Total exports and domestic use are forecast to increase due to the higher supply and strong demand, resulting in moderately higher carry-out stocks.
Average prices, over all grades and markets, are forecast to increase from 2002-03 for dry beans, chick peas and buckwheat, decrease for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed and canary seed, and be the same for sunflower seed. However, prices are expected to be very sensitive to any production problems due to low world carry-in stocks.
The main factors to watch will be precipitation during the summer in Canada, the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and other currencies, and growing conditions in major producing countries.
Production and supply are forecast to decrease significantly, due mainly to a 28% decrease in seeded area. Production is expected to decrease for all major classes of dry beans.
Exports are forecast to decrease, due to lower supply, and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to a low level. US production and supply are also expected to decrease due to a forecast 21% decrease in seeded area.
The average price, over all classes and grades, is forecast to increase due to the lower supply.
MGR Archive 25.6.2003
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Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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